I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...

We are pleased to announce a new method of computing the bankruptcy risk of companies, the "Probability of Financial Distress." John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi developed a logit ...

Inverted Yields, Negative Rates, and U.S. Treasury Probabilities 10 Years Forward ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...

Discover why options market data suggests a lower crash risk for U.S. stocks than pundit surveys, and how to optimize asset ...

Are the odds you see on a sportsbook not the ones you’re familiar with? Do you want an easier way to determine how likely a sportsbook thinks a bet will win or lose? Use our odds calculator today!

We provide numerical solutions based on the path integral representation of stochastic processes for non-gradient drift Langevin forces in the presence of noise, to follow the temporal evolution of ...