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Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve "inverted" this week, setting off debate over whether it is delivering a classic signal of oncoming recession or it has just developed a ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

I still remember back in 2006, when the curve inverted ahead of the financial crisis. Hardly anyone outside of bankers, economists, hardcore investors and bond traders knew what it meant. But by 2008, ...

The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the past ...

The financial market’s top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun - or will begin soon. Historically, the longer and deeper has been the initial inversion, the longer and deeper has been the ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...