“…a probabilistic forecast is an expression of uncertainty. If a model gives a candidate a 15 percent chance, you’d expect that candidate to win about one ...

A regular traveler is planning an overseas trip but hasn't purchased her plane ticket. So she visits various websites that can predict whether the cost of her ticket will rise or fall. Two sites say ...

The months after the 2016 presidential election were a brutal time for election forecasters. Many Democratic voters felt misled, even betrayed, by the comforting voices in the media that had reassured ...

Goldman Sachs has cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession to 20% from 25%, shortly after raising it from 15%. After holding the odds at 15% for nearly a year, economists at Goldman — and ...

Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. Mississippi and its coastal counties have far higher than average chances of seeing hurricane damage this season, researchers say.