Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

For millennia, humans have sought new ways of predicting the future, leading to such methods as the crystal ball, star charts and even tea leaf reading. Luckily, the modern business leader has better ...

Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

For years, the strange phenomenon of precognition–an unwavering “gut feeling” that something will happen in the future–has puzzled scientists. The eerie concept may sound far-fetched, but many studies ...

Tracey Follows studied at the University of Manchester, where she developed the philosophical and strategic foundations that ...

Because if you have and you’ve done so on more than one occasion, consider yourself clairvoyant. Scientists define having a “gut feeling” as an unwavering strange feeling that something will occur in ...